December 04, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the last few Days
In the past days, significant economic indicators from the US and European economies were released, offering insights into current economic conditions. While the US manufacturing sector shows signs of softening, the service sector remains relatively stable. Employment data in the US is mixed, reflecting underlying challenges in job creation. In Europe, manufacturing has been sluggish, with varied PMI results across major economies. Inflation remains a critical concern in both regions, influencing central bank policies and market expectations.
📊 US Employment Indicators
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation | Impact on USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change (Nov) | 47K | -32K | -79K | The decrease indicates potential weaknesses in the private sector job market. | This could exert downward pressure on the USD as expectations for economic growth may dampen. |
| Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/29) | 216K | — | — | An increase could signal rising layoffs, which impacts consumer confidence and spending. | Potential depreciation of USD if claims rise significantly. |
| Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov/22) | 1,960K | — | — | Stable claims suggest steady but unremarkable economic recovery. | Neutral to slight negative impact if upward trends continue. |
📈 US Manufacturing and Services PMIs
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation | Impact on USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) | 48.7 | 48.2 | -0.5 | The decrease points to a contraction in the manufacturing sector. | A weaker USD may follow if the trend continues, signaling economic challenges. |
| ISM Services PMI (Nov) | 52.4 | 52.6 | 0.2 | The slight increase signals stability in the service sector. | This could support USD resilience due to continued services growth. |
🗣️ Central Bank Speeches and Inflation
| Event | Previous | Actual | Interpretation | Impact on USD/EUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Chair Powell Speech | — | — | Market participants are keen on potential direction on future interest rate paths. | High potential for USD volatility based on tone and content. |
| CPI (Nov) - EU | 129.7 | 129.34 | Slight decrease shows modest easing in price levels. | Easing inflation may weigh on EUR as ECB might delay tightening. |
📉 European Manufacturing Outlook
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI (EU, Nov) | 50 | 49.6 | -0.4 | Contraction in manufacturing activity signals economic challenges. |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI (DE, Nov) | 49.6 | 48.2 | -1.4 | Further contraction indicates weakening industrial momentum. |
⚠️ Conclusion
Overall, the US economy shows mixed signals with improvements in services but weaknesses in manufacturing and employment. The European economic landscape is marked by declining manufacturing PMIs but stable inflation figures. These dynamics suggest a neutral to slightly bearish view on the USD given the relative robustness of the services sector offset by other challenges.