October 02, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the last few Days
The recent economic data releases present a mixed picture for both the US and European economies, with particular attention to employment figures and inflationary trends. While certain data highlight moderate improvement in the US manufacturing sector, European manufacturing shows signs of weakness. Inflation remains a critical focus, influencing monetary policy expectations and the respective currencies.
📊 US Economic Indicators
🗣️ Employment Data
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) | 7.208M | 7.2M | 7.227M | +0.019M | Slight increase indicates ongoing labor demand; supportive for USD in the short term. |
| ADP Employment Change (Sep) | -3K | 50K | -32K | -29K | Substantial decline suggests weakening job growth; potentially bearish for USD. |
📈 Manufacturing Data
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 48.7 | 49 | 49.1 | +0.4 | Improvement indicates expansion nearing; slightly positive for USD sentiment. |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 53 | 52 | 52 | -1 | Decline yet still above 50, suggesting moderate sector health; neutral impact on USD. |
📉 European Economic Indicators
🗣️ Inflation Data
| Country | Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | 2% | 2.2% | +0.2% | Rising inflation puts pressure on ECB policy; supportive for EUR if rates increase. |
| DE | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) | 2.2% | 2.4% | +0.2% | Consistent inflation rise raises expectations of tighter ECB policy; EUR could strengthen. |
📈 Retail Sales
| Country | Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | Retail Sales YoY (Aug) | 2.9% | 1.8% | -1.1% | Weak sales suggest consumer caution; potential drag on EUR strength. |
| ES | Retail Sales YoY (Aug) | 4.7% | 4.5% | -0.2% | Marginal decline; not significantly affecting EUR in current period. |
✅ Conclusion
Overall, the current data presents a nuanced outlook for the USD. While manufacturing and job openings in the US show some resilience, significant employment data decline indicates potential economic weakening. Concurrently, the Eurozone grapples with rising inflation, prompting potential ECB policy adjustments that might impact the EUR positively. These elements collectively hint that the immediate trajectory for the USD might face pressure, depending on domestic and international policy responses.