September 18, 2025 a 02:31 am
📊 Important Key Figures of the Last Few Days
The past few days have shown turbulent changes in key economic indicators, reflecting a dynamic economic landscape in both the US and European regions. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to alter interest rates, coupled with stark fluctuations in retail sales and manufacturing indices, has left a significant impact on market sentiments. Meanwhile, European inflationary data and economic sentiment indices also show mixed signals, suggesting cautious navigation for policymakers and investors alike.
🗣️ Monetary Policy and Central Bank Actions
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.25% | 4.25% | -0.25% |
| ECB Guindos Speech | No significant updates reported. | |||
- The Fed's decision to decrease the interest rate to 4.25% indicates a more accommodative monetary policy stance, potentially aimed at supporting economic growth.
- This move might weaken the USD in the short term as lower interest rates typically decrease currency attractiveness.
📈 Retail and Consumer Activity
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM (Aug) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Retail Sales YoY (Aug) | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5% | 0.9% |
| Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Aug) | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
- Surprising strength in retail sales suggests resilience in consumer spending despite broader economic uncertainties.
- The strong retail data could support USD stability as it reflects economic robustness.
📉 Manufacturing and Economic Sentiment
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) | 11.9 | 5 | -8.7 | -20.6 |
| ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep - DE) | 34.7 | 26.3 | 37.3 | 2.6 |
- The decline in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index indicates significant deterioration in the manufacturing sector, potentially weighing on economic output.
- Conversely, the positive ZEW Index reading for Germany suggests improving economic sentiment in Europe, which may contrast US sentiment.
- This disparity could imply mixed effects on USD, with potential for divergence with EUR.
🏠 Housing Market Dynamics
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Starts (Aug) | 1.429M | 1.37M | 1.307M | -0.122M |
| Building Permits (Aug) | 1.362M | 1.37M | 1.312M | -0.05M |
- The decline in housing starts and building permits reflects a softer housing market, possibly influenced by previous higher interest rates.
- Continued weakness in housing could dampen economic momentum, exerting a downward pressure on the USD.
⚠️ Labor Market Outlook
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep/06) | 1939K | 1950K | Pending | High |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Sep/13) | 240.5K | 244.5K | Pending | High |
| Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/13) | 263K | 240K | Pending | High |
- Pending data on jobless claims could further clarify labor market conditions, crucial for forecasting economic health and USD's trajectory.
🧮 Inflation and Price Indices
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (Aug - EU) | 129.12 | 129.32 | 129.31 | +0.19 |
- Slower growth in European CPI suggests moderated inflationary pressures, influencing ECB's policy decisions and potentially affecting EUR/USD dynamics.
✅ Conclusion
The current economic indicators reveal mixed signals for the USD. While strong retail sales figures support the currency, the reduction in interest rates and weakening manufacturing sector exert a downward pressure. Coupled with a softening housing market, the overall effect on the USD remains cautiously neutral to slightly negative, requiring careful monitoring of upcoming labor market data to gauge further implications for volatility and policy direction.