September 16, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the Last Few Days
In the past five days, the U.S. has experienced notable shifts in its manufacturing and consumer sentiment indices, reflecting an undercurrent of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, inflation figures continue to rise modestly, suggesting persistent price pressures. In contrast, stable Eurozone interest rates provide a sense of predictability amid fluctuating economic sentiments.
📊 Inflation and Consumer Price Index
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (Aug) | 323.05 | 323.98 | +0.93 | A rising CPI indicates increased consumer costs, exerting upward pressure on inflation. This could lead to potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, indirectly strengthening the USD due to higher returns on dollar-denominated assets. |
| Inflation Rate MoM (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.4% | +0.2% | This increase in the monthly inflation rate signals persistent inflationary trends, likely prompting the Fed to consider monetary tightening, thereby supporting a stronger USD. |
| Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 2.7% | 2.9% | +0.2% | The year-over-year inflation uptick underscores sustained price growth, enhancing the potential for interest rate action to maintain price stability, which could be USD positive. |
🗣️ Consumer and Business Sentiment
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) | 58.2 | 55.4 | -2.8 | A decline in consumer sentiment highlights potential weakening consumer confidence, which could impact consumer spending negatively, exerting downside pressure on the USD. |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep) | 11.9 | -8.7 | -20.6 | The sharp decline indicates significant contraction in manufacturing activity, raising concerns over economic slowdown, potentially weighing on the USD. |
📉 Labor Market Dynamics
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/06) | 236K | 263K | +27K | The increase in jobless claims suggests rising unemployment pressures, potentially dampening economic prospects and weakening the USD. |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Sep/06) | 230.75K | 240.5K | +9.75K | This upward trend in the average indicates a deteriorating labor market condition, which could negatively impact USD sentiment. |
⚠️ European Perspective
| Event | Country | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep) | Germany | 34.7 | null | N/A | Unrecorded data suggest uncertainty in economic expectations, potentially affecting EUR volatility. |
| ECB Interest Rate Decision | Eurozone | 2.15% | 2.15% | No Change | Stable interest rates provide predictability, supporting the EUR by maintaining stable economic conditions. |
✅ Conclusion
Overall, the current economic indicators present a mixed view for the USD. The persistent inflationary pressures and stable inflation trends suggest potential support for the USD. However, weakening consumer sentiment and labor market dynamics pose significant challenges, potentially counteracting inflation-driven support. The outlook is contingent upon further data releases and Federal Reserve policy decisions.