September 09, 2025 a 02:31 am
📊 Important Key Figures of the last few Days
The recent economic data paints a complex picture for both the U.S. and European economies. U.S. employment figures show significant underperformance with lower nonfarm payrolls and higher unemployment rates, potentially pressuring the USD. Meanwhile, Euro Area data indicates a mixed scenario with varied performance in retail sales and employment figures. These findings will be closely analyzed for implications on both the USD and EUR in the days to come.
🗣️ U.S. Employment Figures
| Event | Previous | Current | Change | Change % | Interpretation | USD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non Farm Payrolls (Aug) | 79K | 22K | -57K | -72.15% | Substantial deceleration in job creation suggests weakening labor market. | Potential downward pressure on the USD. |
| Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.2% | 4.3% | +0.1% | +2.38% | Slight increase indicates rising unemployment levels. | Likely weakens USD against major currencies. |
| U-6 Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 7.9% | 8.1% | +0.2% | +2.53% | Broader measurement of unemployment also increased | Further pressure on the USD. |
| ADP Employment Change (Aug) | 106K | 54K | -52K | -49.06% | Private sector shows significant slowdown in hiring. | USD could face headwinds. |
📈 U.S. Services Sector and Claims
| Event | Previous | Current | Change | Change % | Interpretation | USD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Services PMI (Aug) | 50.1 | 52 | +1.9 | +3.79% | Indicates expansion in the services sector. | Could support USD strength. |
| S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) | 55.7 | 54.5 | -1.2 | -2.15% | Slight contraction relative to previous months. | May slightly weaken USD. |
| Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/30) | 229K | 237K | +8K | +3.49% | Rising jobless claims suggest cooling labor market. | Negative pressure on USD. |
| Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug/23) | 1944K | 1940K | -4K | -0.21% | Marginal improvement in ongoing claims. | Minimal impact on USD. |
📉 Euro Area Trade and Employment Data
| Event | Previous | Current | Change | Change % | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade (Jul) - DE | €15.4B | €14.7B | -€0.7B | -4.54% | Deterioration in trade balance. |
| Employment Change YoY (Q2) - EU | 0.7% | 0.6% | -0.1% | -14.29% | Job growth slows down. |
| Retail Sales YoY (Jul) - EU | 3.5% | 2.2% | -1.3% | -37.14% | Drop in consumer spending. |
🛍️ European Retail Dynamics
| Event | Previous | Current | Change | Change % | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM (Jul) - IT | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.7% | -100% | Consumer spending stagnates. |
| Retail Sales YoY (Jul) - IT | 1.1% | 1.8% | +0.7% | +63.64% | Significant year-over-year growth. |
Conclusion ✅
The current data presents mixed signals. The strong ISM Services PMI offers some support for the USD; however, the broader employment data and rising unemployment rates in the U.S. indicate potential weaknesses that could exert downward pressure on the USD. Similarly, the weakened balance of trade and employment figures in Europe reflect economic challenges. Overall, the data suggests a slightly bearish outlook for the USD in the short term.