September 04, 2025 a 02:31 am
📊 Important Key Figures of the last few Days
The economic landscape over the past few days has been marked by significant fluctuations in key indicators across both the US and European markets. Highlighted by shifts in PMI readings, changes in unemployment rates, and the dynamics of job data, these factors collectively offer insights into the economic performance and potential future trajectories. The US has seen diverse trends in manufacturing and services sectors, while in Europe, various countries have exhibited both improvement and challenges in economic activities.
🗣️ US Employment Data
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Interpretation | USD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) | 7.357M | 7.4M | 7.181M | -0.176M | The decrease in job openings suggests potential cooling in the job market. | ⚠️ May pressure USD if the labor market weakens further. |
| ADP Employment Change (Aug) | 104K | 65K | -- | -- | This indicator can show potential trends in private sector job creation. | ✅ A positive surprise could support the USD. |
📉 PMI Assessments
US PMI
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Interpretation | USD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 48 | 49 | 48.7 | +0.7 | Manufacturing remains below the neutral 50-mark, indicating contraction but improvement. | ⚠️ Mildly negative, but improvement is hopeful. |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 49.8 | 53.3 | 53 | +3.2 | Stronger than previous, reflecting positive growth. | ✅ Supports the USD through stronger industrial activity. |
EU PMI
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCOB Services PMI (Aug) - DE | 50.6 | 50.1 | 49.3 | -1.3 | Downward shift into contraction territory for the services sector in Germany. |
| HCOB Services PMI (Aug) - FR | 48.5 | 49.7 | 49.8 | +1.3 | Improving conditions hint at slow recovery. |
📈 European Inflation & Employment Overview
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY (Aug) | 2% | 2% | 2.1% | +0.1% | Slight increase in inflation indicates price level pressure in the EU. |
| Employment Change (Aug) - ES | -1.4K | 14.2K | 21.9K | +23.3K | Significant employment gain showcasing a robust job market. |
Conclusion
The varied economic indicators from the US and Europe over the past few days paint a complex picture. In the US, mixed signals from the labor market and manufacturing sector leave the USD with conditional support contingent on future trends. Meanwhile, Europe's inflationary pressures and employment gains highlight regional divergences, offering potential volatility for the EUR. Overall, current data trends seem modestly supportive for the USD, particularly with surprising strength in manufacturing and employment resilience.