July 08, 2025 a 02:31 am
📊 Important Key Figures of the last few Days
The last few days have presented a mixed bag of economic indicators reflecting both resilience and challenges within the US and European economies. The US economy shows signs of strengthening, especially with improvements in the labor market. However, certain sectors still face headwinds as indicated by varied PMI results. In Europe, retail sales figures show a contraction, while some service sectors suggest recovery signals. These dynamics could influence currency movements, particularly the USD.
🗣️ US Economic Indicators
ISM Non-Manufacturing & Services PMI
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 49.9 | 50.8 | +0.9 | The index climbing above 50 indicates an expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. This strengthens economic optimism for the US. |
| ISM Services PMI (Jun) | 49.9 | 50.8 | +0.9 | Similar to the non-manufacturing PMI, service sectors are witnessing expansion, which could support the USD. |
Labor Market Signs
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.2% | 4.1% | -0.1% | The declining rate signals a strengthening labor market, which is favorable for economic growth and the USD. |
| Non Farm Payrolls (Jun) | 144K | 147K | +3K | Higher-than-expected job creation suggests robust economic activity, likely boosting the USD. |
| Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Jun) | 137K | 74K | -63K | The decline in private payrolls may indicate underlying economic challenges, providing mixed signals for the USD. |
Inflation & Job Claims
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) | 68.7 | 67.5 | -1.2 | Falling prices in this sector could ease inflationary pressures, supporting a stable USD. |
| Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/28) | 237K | 233K | -4K | The decrease in jobless claims is indicative of a resilient job market, positive for USD stability. |
📉 European Economic Indicators
Retail Sales & PMI
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU Retail Sales MoM (May) | 0.3% | -0.7% | -1% | Contraction in retail sales raises concerns over consumer confidence, potentially weakening the EUR. |
| HCOB Services PMI (EU) (Jun) | 49.7 | 50.5 | +0.8 | Services sector shows signs of recovery, easing recession fears in the EU zone. |
✅ Conclusion
Overall, the recent economic indicators portray the US economy edging towards recovery with improvements in employment and sectoral expansions. However, the European landscape is more varied, with retail challenges counterbalanced by some service sector improvements. The synthesis of these developments suggests a supporting environment for the USD in the short term, powered by strong labor market signals and service sector growth, unless private payroll declines significantly dent economic sentiment.