June 12, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the last few Days
The recent economic data releases provide a complex picture of the US economy. With slightly subdued inflation figures and unchanged employment data, the market faces ambiguous signals. The Federal Reserve may take a cautious approach amid mixed indicators regarding economic stability and growth. These data points are crucial in determining future monetary policy directions and their potential impact on the US Dollar.
📊 Inflation Data Analysis
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI s.a (May) | 320.321 | 320.58 | 0.259 | High |
| CPI (May) | 320.795 | 321.465 | 0.67 | High |
| Inflation Rate YoY (May) | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.1 | High |
| Core Inflation Rate MoM (May) | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1 | High |
| Inflation Rate MoM (May) | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1 | High |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY (May) | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0 | High |
- Interpretation: The inflation data indicates a slowing increase in consumer prices. Core inflation figures suggest stagnation, pointing to slower economic momentum.
- Impact on USD: Sluggish inflation reduces pressure for rate hikes, potentially weakening USD as investors might expect a dovish Fed policy.
🗣️ Employment Figures
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31) | 1904K | n/a | n/a | High |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Jun/07) | 235K | n/a | n/a | High |
| Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/07) | 247K | n/a | n/a | High |
- Interpretation: Without the latest actual figures, the employment data remains speculative. Consistent estimates indicate stability, yet underlying trends need confirmation.
- Impact on USD: Stability in jobless claims may encourage a steady USD, awaiting confirmation from final data.
📈 Additional Economic Indicators
| Event | Previous | Actual | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Note Auction | 4.342% | n/a | n/a | High |
| Producer Price Index MoM (May) | -0.5% | n/a | n/a | High |
- Interpretation: The yield on the 10-year note and producer prices are crucial for future expectations on economic growth and inflation trends.
- Impact on USD: High yields can attract foreign investments, bolstering USD, while stable PPI may signal limited inflation pressures.
🗣️ Central Bank Communications
- Event: ECB Guindos Speech
- Impact: High
- Interpretation: Awaiting comments from ECB could influence EUR/USD dynamics, depending on tone and policy signals.
✅ Conclusion
The current economic data presents a mixed outlook for the US economy. Slower inflation and steady employment figures suggest a cautiously stable economic environment. However, the lack of movement in inflation could hinder USD strength unless employment displays vibrant improvements. Overall, the figures lean slightly towards a supportive environment for the USD, but significant risks remain from potential Fed policy shifts.