June 03, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the Last Few Days
Over the last several days, the economic data has shown mixed signals from both the US and European economies. While US manufacturing data points to some contraction, improvements in the labor market and consistent consumer spending provide a balanced outlook. Europe shows stability with slight improvements in manufacturing but struggles with retail sales, indicating an uneven recovery. The currency markets reflect these nuances with the USD maintaining a cautious stance.
🗣️ Fed Chair Remarks
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech is highly anticipated but lacks details in the given data. Market participants likely look for any hints on future interest rate adjustments.
📉 US Economic Indicators
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Change % | Impact | Economic Interpretation | USD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) | 48.7 | 49.5 | 48.5 | -0.2 | -0.41% | High | Contraction in manufacturing suggests slowing economic activity. | May pressure USD if contraction persists. |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) | 50.2 | 52.3 | 52 | +1.8 | +3.59% | High | Improvement in manufacturing, indicating growth potential. | Could support a stronger USD. |
| Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q1) | 2.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -2.6 | -108.33% | High | Offsetting previous estimates, slight contraction noticed. | Downside risk for USD. |
| Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May/24) | 231 | 233 | 230.75 | -0.25 | -0.11% | High | Slight improvement suggests labor market resilience. | Provides USD stability. |
| Goods Trade Balance (Apr) | -162.25 B | -141.5 B | -87.62 B | +74.63 | +46.00% | High | Narrowing deficit supportive of economic health. | Could bolster USD strength. |
📈 European Economic Indicators
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Change % | Impact | Economic Interpretation | EUR Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May) | 49 | 49.4 | 49.4 | +0.4 | +0.82% | High | Stability with slight growth signals. | Neutral to supportive for EUR. |
| Unemployment Rate (GR - Apr) | 8.9% | 9% | 8.3% | -0.6 | -6.74% | High | Improvement suggests labor market recovery. | Favorable for EUR strength. |
| Retail Sales YoY (GR - Mar) | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | -5.3 | -94.64% | High | Significant drop indicating consumer caution. | Puts pressure on the EUR. |
⚠️ Conclusion
Overall, the mixed economic data presents a neutral to slightly defensive outlook for the USD. Manufacturing remains a concern, but improvements in GDP and labor metrics provide some balance. The upcoming economic releases and any new insights from the Fed will be crucial in determining the USD's trajectory in the near term.