May 29, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the last few Days
In the past week, US and European economic indicators have presented a mixed picture with potentially significant impacts on currency dynamics. The US demonstrates volatility in durable goods and jobless claims, while Europe showcases varied signals in employment and consumer confidence. As central banks continue to navigate uncertainties, these figures will be crucial in shaping future monetary policies and market expectations.
📊 Economic Activity in the US
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Impact on USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) | 2.4% | -0.3% | Pending | N/A | High volatility could lead to uncertainty and pressure on the USD if growth contracts. |
| Durable Goods Orders MoM (Apr) | 7.6% | -7.8% | -6.3% | -13.9% | The significant drop indicates weakened demand, potentially weighing on the USD. |
| Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Apr) | 9% | -8.1% | -7.5% | -16.5% | Continued declines suggest economic softening, a negative sign for the USD. |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Apr) | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | An unexpected rise here may offer some resilience to the USD. |
🗣️ Employment Indicators in the US
| Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Impact on USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuing Jobless Claims (May/17) | 1,903K | 1,890K | Pending | N/A | Potential stability in job market supports the USD. |
| Initial Jobless Claims (May/24) | 227K | 230K | Pending | N/A | Continued stability may alleviate some pressure off the USD. |
📈 European Economic Outlook
| Country | Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Change | Impact on EUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Employment Change (May) | 6K | 10K | 34K | +28K | Strong employment figures support the EUR. |
| France | Inflation Rate YoY (May) | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.1% | Falling inflation could exert downward pressure on the EUR. |
| Germany | Consumer Confidence (Jun) | -20.8 | -19 | -19.9 | +0.9 | Slow improvement but remains weak, slightly negative for the EUR. |
✅ Conclusion
The mixed economic data from both the US and Europe suggest a challenging environment. US durable goods data indicates a contracting scenario; however, stability in jobless claims provides some relief. In Europe, while strong German employment figures bolster confidence, low inflation and weak consumer sentiment in France and Germany present concerns. Overall, with the existing dynamics, the USD faces potential pressure.
These factors collectively lean towards being moderately bearish for the USD in the short term.