May 15, 2025 a 02:31 am
Important Key Figures of the last few Days
The past five days have been characterized by significant economic data releases and speeches affecting both the US and European markets. The focus has been on inflation indicators, retail sales, and employment metrics, all pivotal for economic decision-making. These figures have implications for the monetary policy stance and currency valuations, making them critical to financial market participants.
📊 Inflation Dynamics
| Event | Previous | Current | Change | Interpretation | USD Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.2% | +0.3% | This increase indicates a moderate inflation rise, a signal of economic stabilization post deflationary pressures. | Moderate support for USD as it suggests a rebound in consumer prices. |
| US Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1% | Core prices growing steadily suggests underlying inflation pressures remain controlled. | Slight support for USD, calling for careful Fed observation. |
| US Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.1% | Yearly comparison shows a slight decrease, indicating easing inflation pressures. | Potentially neutral to negative for USD if perceived as a sign to hold off rate hikes. |
| DE CPI (Apr) | 0.3% | 0.4% | +0.1% | Rising CPI aligns with ECB's inflation targets, indicating economic resilience. | Generally neutral influence on USD, more impactful on EUR. |
📈 Economic Activity and Employment
| Event | Previous | Current | Estimate | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail Sales MoM (Apr) | 1.5% | N/A | 0% | Expected stagnation in retail sales could indicate consumer spending reluctance. |
| US Initial Jobless Claims (May/10) | 228K | N/A | 229K | Steady claims may reflect stable labor market conditions. |
| EU Employment Change YoY (Q1) | 0.7% | N/A | 0.8% | Projected increase suggests continued labor market improvement in EU. |
🗣️ Central Bank Insights
- Fed Chair Powell Speech: Market participants keenly anticipate insights on potential policy shifts.
- ECB Guindos Speech: Observers are attentive to hints on future ECB policy strategy in light of economic data.
✅ Conclusion
Overall, the economic indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook on US inflation with sustained but careful labor market strength. Given the modest inflation increase and stable employment conditions, the current data sets are slightly supportive of the USD, although global monetary policy shifts and external shocks remain influential factors.